The new Serie A season has arrived, and many fans hope that the Scudetto title will return to Milan at the end of the 2024/25 season. But will Internazionale or AC Milan lift the trophy?
Inter left their rivals in the dust last season, nearly breaking the 100-point barrier and finishing with a full 19-point lead over rivals AC Milan. Teams like Juventus and Atalanta are even further behind, 23 and 25 points behind Inter respectively. The four teams hope to close the gap with the defending champions this time.
Inter Milan vs AC Milan
The first big derby match of the Serie A season is on September 22 when Internazionale host AC Milan – even though they actually share the same home stadium, the San Siro. The Serie A title race has been one of the most exciting in Europe in the last five years, with four different teams lifting the trophy. Inter won the Scudetto in 2020/21 and 2023/24, while AC Milan last lifted it in 2021/22. Juventus and Napoli have both also won the Italian League in the last few seasons. However, this year is a little different, Milan must close the 19 point gap if they want to overtake Inter in the standings. Last season, Inter managed to achieve 29 wins from 38 matches, losing only twice throughout the season, while AC Milan only recorded 22 wins and lost seven times. So, which of them will finish higher this season in the Milan showdown?
Derby della Madonnina rivalry
Where does Inter and AC Milan’s rivalry actually come from? Many young fans may not even know the roots of the bitter conflict. In fact, even the oldest living person was only old enough to live through the formation of Internazionale. The Derby della Madonnina is Italy’s most famous and hottest derby, and with good reason…
In 1908, a group of players decided to break away from AC Milan to form their own team. They wanted to play for a club that was more accepting of foreign players, something they felt was not accepted at The Milan Cricket and Football Club at the time. That’s where the name Football Club Internazionale comes from – a desire to welcome international players into the club with open arms. Thus was born Internazionale!
Even since Internazionale emerged on the Italian football scene in the early 1900s, the competition between them and AC Milan has continued to be fierce. If you go to San Siro on derby day, you will almost certainly be greeted by a hostile atmosphere, including lots of banners and a sea of flares. In fact, San Siro is one of the biggest selling points of the Derby della Madonnina in general. Can you imagine Barcelona and Real Madrid sharing the same stadium every year? Or Manchester United and Liverpool? Or Arsenal and Tottenham?
The place
San Siro – Sunday 22 September. Kick-off: 20:45 local time.
Inter does not always play its home games at this stadium. San Siro was built in 1926 and funded by AC Milan chairman at the time, Piero Pirelli. Nine years later, the stadium was sold to the city and Inter were accepted as joint tenants in 1947, much to the annoyance of Milan fans. This 76,000 seat capacity stadium is even named after the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, a club legend who played for Inter for 14 seasons, and only two years with Milan.
Form Guide
Inter and AC Milan have something in common this week – they both have to face big English teams in the CL just days before the Milan derby. Inter had difficulties because they had to travel to the Etihad to face Manchester City, while AC Milan played at home to Liverpool, a match which ended in a 1-3 defeat. However, fitness and fatigue will likely take a toll on Sunday, especially in the second half at San Siro.
International
Inter Milano started the 2024/25 Serie A season with mixed form, picking up two draws and two wins – but at least they remain unbeaten. Last week, Denzel Dumfries scored a late equalizer to give Inter a point away to Monza. The defending champions currently sit in second place in the standings, only one point behind Napoli and level with Juventus. Overall, it was a pretty good start to their title defense.
AC Milan
In contrast to its arch rivals, AC Milan has tasted defeat this season with a 2-1 away defeat to Parma. Apart from that, Milan has two draws and one win. The silver lining is that this victory was just achieved last week, so they hope this signals the start of a productive run in Serie A. AC Milan is currently behind in 9th place.th is in the standings with five points, but is still four points behind the leaders and there is still a long way to go this season.
Team News and Injury News
Internazionale made a number of smart signings over the summer to strengthen their already impressive squad depth. The most prominent is Davide Frattesi, who joined from Sassuolo in a deal worth €29 million. It is worth noting that the two Serie A matches that Inter lost last season were home and away against Sassuolo. Inter have also strengthened their front line by signing 35-year-old Marko Arnautovic and 31-year-old free agent Mehdi Taremi – despite both having struggled in pre-season. Piotr Zielinski also joined on a free transfer from Napoli, while goalkeeper Josep Martinez and left midfielder Carlos Augusto were both bought for around €13 million each.
Fortunately for Inter, they come into the Milan derby with a very small injury list. Tajon Buchanan suffered a broken tibia in July and was even expected to recover in early October. Apart from that, Inter Milano has a complete set of players to choose from.
AC Milan were fairly quiet in the summer transfer window, but the signing of Alvaro Morata from Atlético Madrid was nothing significant – having just captained Spain to an international title. Strahinja Pavlovic was also signed from RB Salzburg for €18 million, while left-back Alex Jimenez cost just €5 million from Real Madrid’s U19 team. Emerson Royal joins from Tottenham Hotspur for €13 million and Youssouf Fofana costs €20 million from Monaco – two new first-team players for AC Milan.
AC Milan will be without several first team players for the match against Inter this weekend. Alessandro Florenzi is out for the long term due to an anterior cruciate ligament injury and is not expected to return until April 2025. Ismael Bennacer is also expected to be out until the new year due to a calf muscle injury. Marco Sportiello and Malick Thiaw are also out at the moment, but Davide Calabria could return in time this weekend.
Players to Watch
There are so many amazing players to keep an eye on in this one. Perhaps one of the most interesting matchups on the pitch will be Leao against Pavard. If Inter can calm Milan’s star man down, they could have a great night at the San Siro. Martinez and Thuram against Tomori and Pavlovic could also be an interesting fight. Inter often play three defenders and pack the midfield, compared to AC Milan’s 4-3-3 formation. The likes of Pulisic and Leao may have to drop back into a five-man formation, or risk allowing Inter to dominate the midfield battle.
Head-to-head record
It’s no surprise that Inter and Milan have played each other more than a few times over the years. After all, the journey from San Siro to San Siro is quite short. Since the first match between the two teams was played at the San Siro in 1926, there have been more than 220 matches played between Inter and Milan. Inter lead the all-time derby standings, with 85 wins, to Milan’s 71 (and 67 draws).
In recent years, Milan has really had difficulty facing its fierce rivals. Since the start of the 2022/23 season, Inter and AC Milan have faced each other seven times in Serie A, CL and Supercoppa Italiana. However, Milan only won one of those seven matches, and Inter won the other six matches.
Last season in Serie A, Inter managed to achieve a 2-1 away win in the Derby della Madonnina while beating Milan 5-1 at home. This season, Milan definitely hopes to perform better, especially considering that this match could produce six points in the race for the Serie A title.
Potential Implications
Inter and AC Milan both have ambitions of fighting for the Serie A title this season, so we might look to score six points early this weekend. Not only will they try to get three points, but they will also try to force their direct rivals to lose three points of their own. The gap between Inter and AC last season was 19 points, so it feels more important for Milan to win this match than Internazionale. However, the home team wants to assert their dominance and send a message to the entire Italian League.
Player Lineup Prediction
Let’s see how Inter and AC Milan predict for the Derby della Madonnina this weekend.
International Starting XI
summer; Pavard, Acerbi, Bastoni; Darmian, Barella, Calhanoglu, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco; Thuram, Martinez.
AC Milan Starting XI
Cousin; Emerson, Tomori, Pavlovic, Hernandez; Reijnders, Fofana, Loftus-Cheek; Pulisic, Abraham, Leao.
Internazionale vs AC Milan odds
Internazionale enter the first derby of the season as favorites due to home advantage and their superior record last season. However, the early matches this season could go either way. Although home crowd advantage is still a factor between Inter and Milan, home stadium advantage doesn’t really apply, considering both play at the San Siro every two weeks. With Internazionale winning this tie 5-1 last season, it remains to be seen if AC Milan can put up a better performance.
International to win: 1.68
Draw: 3.95
AC Milan to win: 4.70
Last season, Inter Milano won this match 5-1. You can get a chance of them doing the same thing again at 67.00. Internazionale at 9.00 to win 2-0 or 13.00 to win 3-0. If you want to back AC Milan to win away, you can get odds of 15.00 for a 1-0 win and 13.00 for a 1-2 win.
You can check out the full Inter vs AC Milan odds on Betsson HERE.
Score Prediction
We’d be surprised to see anything other than an Inter win here. Not only do Internazionale have a much stronger starting XI than AC, but they have also started the new season better. However, it must be said that Inter did have to fly to England to face Manchester City while AC Milan did not have to travel for the match against Liverpool. That could swing the pendulum slightly back towards the away side.
Prediction: Inter Milan 3-1 AC Milan
PS: The odds may have changed since this article was written and published.
Last Updated: 06.11.2024
